Ukraine has been rationing ammunition and bullets; meanwhile the Russian army has been using ‘human wave’ tactics by sending poorly trained recruits to the frontline in a bid to force Ukraine use up all of its ammunition.
In Ukraine, the army has been on the backfoot over the last few months; and despite the US package of $61 billion (€56.6 billion) of military support, experts say it will be sufficient merely to hold the frontline and possibly regain some lost territory.
The situation has deteriorated in large part due to a serious shortage of ammunition and weapons from Western allies; where Ukrainian forces say they have been rationing bullets.
Ukraine has been forced to abandon territory westward beginning with Avdiivka in Donetsk region in February.
Due to a distinct lack of military support, Russia has gained and maintained momentum.
According to Anders Puk Nielsen https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuck, Russia is probably peaking right now, because they have transitioned to war time economy, and they are restoring old Soviet equipment.
The problems for Russia are that their industrial output is declining, despite heavy public investments, in part because of sanctions, and in part because of worker shortage, and their Soviet equipment reserves are dwindling.
Hopefully the situation will get worse for Russia quickly, among other things they are allegedly beginning to experience an oil shortage now. Due to the strategic bombing from Ukraine.
So while Ukraine is hard pressed currently, time is most likely on the side of Ukraine. Which is contrary to what Putin counted on, when he bet the West would quickly tire of supporting Ukraine.
US military equipment were actually on standby in Poland for delivery, just before the anticipated final vote and approval in Congress. In spite of this, the real challenge is actually once delivered to their intended destination-- setting up and deploying the equipment to combat still takes time.
Yes US logistics is legendary, I’m guessing units at the front are getting better equipped already, but it probably takes time to fill the gap of months of shortages.
And Ukraine was pushed from their trenches and did not have fortified backups at the level of the first lines.
Absolutely, even when they get stocked up again, that doesn’t give them back what they lost.
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They are now outsourcing labor and materials from their allies. China alone has plenty of both to keep Russia going indefinitely. They will likely not lose a war of attrition any time soon. Putin’s bluff will need to be called for this to end in a timely fashion.
China is trying to win over USA and Europe now, receiving visit from Blinken of the US administration, and visiting France and other European countries. So I don’t think China is all interested in supporting Russia more than what the west can stomach.
Winning a piss poor economy of 120 million Russian citizens, compared to about 1 billion people in the west with more money is kind of an economic no-brainer.
Also the Russian declining output means a declining economy, and so does declining oil exports. So Russia’s ability to pay is declining, and I doubt China feel Russia is a good enough ally to sacrifice their interests in the west, and pay for it too.
But no doubt if China wanted to create problems for us, they could create huge problems by supporting Russia. But it’s kind of a lose lose scenario with little if not negative political gain.
Putin made a major miscalculation, and I don’t think China want to hang on to that.
That would give me some hope, but I’ve also seen indications towards the opposite.
I watched some recent talks between Chinese officials and what I think it was a German delegation seeking to convince China to exert more pressure on Russia. The Chinese politicians sounded exactly like Russia-indoctrinated tankies, talking point for talking point. When asked about a specific German politician In an interview with a journalist, one Chinese official spewed forth a shower of insults (all the favorites, from “unhinged” to “deranged”, “delusional” and “hysterical”, just one after another, at least that’s what the translation said).
I really hope what I’ve seen there is just an outlier.
Didn’t they have 3% economic growth last year?
Yes they did, or at least that’s what they claim.
I’m sure china is trying to use russia as a bargaining chip. So its in thier inerest to keep the russian war going, while milking what ever they can get from europe/usa. I just wounder what they think they will get from eruope/usa. Or be offered to stop supporting russian war effort?
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