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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I’ve been doing scientific software development for 20 years, and here’s my personal experience:

    • Software development as it had been is already over due to AI. There’s no reason to write code yourself anymore in 99% of cases. Even highly technical stuff (GPU algorithms, for example) are no problem for the AI.

    • Scientific work is very different than it used to be. The AI doesn’t have the initiative to just do it for you yet the way it can with writing software, but it’s an expert in every field so it provides an excellent foundation for your own novel ideas and it can often suggest new ideas from fields you aren’t personally knowledgeable about.

    • Socializing is going to be very different soon. Right now the AI is already more interesting to talk to than most humans, but talking to it doesn’t feel like talking to a human and doesn’t satisfy the need for interpersonal interaction. I expect that to change. (I suspect that the current absence of a human-like AI is more because developing it is not good business than because it’s technically difficult.)

    • A lot of AI critics have objectively false ideas of how well AI works. I think they either haven’t tried cutting-edge models recently or they have deliberately tried to make those models fail. You can break most things if you try; that doesn’t mean they don’t work well.

    As I type this, an AI is working on a tricky problem in molecular dynamics for me. It has already found and fixed issues with the algorithm that my co-worker spent a month on, but it thinks that a different algorithm it came up with can do even better. After coming up with the idea, it’s independently implementing it, unit testing it, running simulations with it, and doing statistical analysis of those simulation results. If it gets errors, it can debug them on its own. If the results aren’t as good as it expected, it can iterate over different variants on its own. If the algorithm ends up not working, it can reason about why, from a scientific perspective. What the AI does in hours would have taken me weeks if I came up with the idea, which I didn’t.

    Right now human experts can still do what AI does, just slower. I expect that in less than 5 years, that will probably no longer be true. Predicting the future after that point is nearly impossible. Will we all die? Maybe.









  • US health insurance companies are highly regulated, and that includes regulation that caps how much of customers’ payments they’re allowed to keep (the “medical loss ratio”). If they don’t pay out enough for medical care, they have to return the extra money. They’re incentivized to deny claims for the same reason any business is incentivized to reduce quality in order to cut price - because most people want a product that costs less up front.

    (I think of myself as a relatively healthy guy, so whenever I have been offered a selection of insurance plans, I have always chosen the cheapest one without looking up denial rates. Maybe this isn’t rational but it is common.)







  • I think our moral intuitions are out of alignment with a logical consideration of good and bad. So I’m not a bad person according to my moral intuitions (not the same thing as being a good person) but also pretty much everyone (including me) is a bad person according to logical consideration.

    (My logic is that only humans appear to be moral agents, but non-human animals deserve moral consideration and there are a lot more non-human animals than there are humans. Thus even seemingly simple questions like “Is it good to save someone’s life?” depend on whether it is better to prevent that person from eating meat by letting him die or to have him contribute to environmental degradation by remaining alive, and thereby prevent wild animals that would have suffered from being born. The effect on the person is not the major deciding factor.)