No idea - but I actually think the Fediverse concept maps to Reddit way better than it has other social networks so I could see some iteration of this really catching on over time.

For something like Twitter, the whole value proposition is “one big universal conversation” and the federated stuff gets in the way of that a little bit, but Reddit has always been a federation of communities (who occasionally fight, join together, cross post, etc) - that maps really well to this stuff.

Impossible to say now, but definitely quite a lot of them are not going to be regular users. I still hope/believe the majority will stay though.

I have no intention of installing the official Reddit app. I’ve used Apollo for years and I’ll leave once it’s no longer an option. The way Reddit treated the Apollo developer is inexcusable.

I managed to quit Twitter, I’m certain I can quit Reddit too.

I can guarantee I won’t be going back to reddit on mobile if they go ahead with the API changes. I may occasionally use reddit on desktop but 99% of my reddit usage was on mobile via Sync.

Once they get rid of old.reddit (which they inevitably will) that will force my hand and I’ll have to fully move to Lemmy. As luck would have it, the developer of Sync is considering re-purposing it to run on Lemmy which would be perfect for me.

If there’s one demographic of users likely to stick with the fediverse it’s going to be redditors.

Probably a good chunk, I don’t mean to be pessimistic either but that’s how it usually works on “big” movements.

Some people follow the flow because they’re caught into the enthusiasm of the moment while not being actually convinced about what they’re doing, those people are highly likely to go back when things are back to normal (tho in my opinion reddit will never be “normal” again).

How many they are is impossible to tell.

The blackout is only the first wave, there will be another one IMO when 3rd party apps actually shutdown (June 30th), after that, things will settle and population on lemmy will lower, that’s not a bad thing IMO, it doesn’t do any good to have people here that don’t actually want to be here.

As for me, since I joined I’m doing my best to be involved in lemmy communities with the specific purpose of not missing reddit anymore and not care anymore when they’ll break old.reddit (they will like their doing with the API).

I already feel at home here, I’m not going drastic as to nuke my reddit account or anything, tho I’ll most probably make a GDPR request and leave for good.

I don’t think the kind of people who are willing to try out some geeky experiment of a social network are totally dependent on Reddit culture.

Exodus from one network to another (or to nowhere) is a thing that’s happened in the past, and if anything, people aren’t willing to go back once they finally take the effort.

Tho I’m guessing lots of people have multiple accounts such as alts for r34, and may keep using those until Reddit finally shuts off all nsfw.

I will likely go where Reddit Sync goes. I don’t really mind if the content here isn’t as vast as on Reddit, if I have Sync I have all that I need

Personally, I like it here and will probably stick around. I hope the servers can scale, and that new communities grow.

I’ll still wind up looking at Reddit for meme content until it turns up here. There’s a lack of goofy pointless shit here currently.

I’m probably going to start using Reddit again when the blackout ends and keep using it until the end of the month, but once RIF stops working I don’t see myself going back. The way I see it, the last couple of days have been a nice stress-test period for Lemmy, but the real exodus will start in July.

I’m staying here, the community is way better. I’ll use both but only post and comment on Lemmy

It depends on how many communities migrate from reddit to lemmy. I will definitely not return to reddit on mobile once third party apps are shut down, but if reddit changes their stance and third party apps come back, I may go back if most of my communities haven’t migrated to lemmy.

I’ll still always rely on Reddit for obscure answers to questions when googling, but I plan on staying with Lemmy once Apollo is taken down. I’ve been trying it out and adjusting to it during the blackout and as long as the community stays somewhat consistent, I like it here more. Reminds me of when I first joined Reddit over a decade ago.

I usually wont quit an app over changes like this but Reddit to me is different. I like Reddit for being a place to find new communities to join and interact with what’s popular, and since the spez ama and the removal of 3rd party apps I just don’t trust it to stay that way anymore. The last thing I want to see Reddit become is another infinite scrolling content feed that an algorithm thinks you’ll like so you never want to stop scrolling. And I’m assuming since they just want to seek profit that’s what it will eventually become.

Even if I get bored here, I won’t go back.

Not going back unless I’m looking for some obscure piece of knowledge. This fulfills my needs for news and conversations about niche topics. Hoping this keeps growing and new mobile apps come out to support it