Summary
Regardless of Putin’s decision regarding the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing a crisis due to factors such as sanctions, a shrinking sovereign wealth fund, and a labor shortage. The war has boosted growth, but Russia cannot sustain it without significant economic consequences.
Not only there is almost no possible scenario of him winning by any possible sane metric, there is no reality when Russia is recovering from this shit without fundamental changes. Whatever win can be, it’s impossible and wouldn’t help.
I absolutely agree with you on the impossibility to win by Russia, unlike most people nowadays. Like the ones who are sure Russia will win the instant Trump gets to office. Not even close to military complex and diplomacy realities.
About recovering economy, history proves the loser always loses big. Russia would never recover from war reparations + sanctions, unless it completely became a Nato satellite state, like Germany and Japan did after WWII. Of course we all know that will never happen with Russia.
Just to remember the only State in history to pay full war reparations is Finland and they did no big destruction.